vs ATL (Mar 14, 2009)vs PHI (Mar 20, 2009) ›

March 17, 2009

Scotiabank Place | Ottawa

BUF 24 OTT

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs OTT all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF2002
OTT0224
Shots on goal BUF 13, OTT 36W B. ElliottL M. Tellqvist
Summary

OTT had more shots on goal in all situations and won 4-2.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Tellqvist .889
OTT B. Elliott .846
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 4
OTT 3 of 9
TURNING POINT
D. Alfredsson goal (P3 3:30), Sabres win chance drops from 47% to 20%
WIN DNA
1 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
J. Pominville
2 (1G-1A)
POINTS
T. Connolly
21:16
TOI (F)
J. Spacek
26:57
TOI (D)
M. Tellqvist
.889 (32/36)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFOTT

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 21 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+27+140-14-27shot attemptsBUFOTT

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 51%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFOTT
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 03:30D. Alfredsson (22) 47% to 20%-27
  2. P2 06:07B. Bell (5) 71% to 51%-20
  3. P1 04:02T. Lydman (2) 51% to 69%+18
  4. P2 01:30D. Heatley (33) 88% to 72%-16

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

1 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2008–09 regular season (82 games).

Wins (41)Losses (41, 9 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 78% when yes, 24% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 81% when yes, 39% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 66% when yes, 32% when no
No
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 60% when yes, 37% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
1
1
2
+1
0
1
1.5
18:06
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
1
1
+2
2
0
0.5
14:29
#5 T. Lydman (D)
1
0
1
+2
2
1
0.8
22:14
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
1
1
+2
6
0
0.3
17:52
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.1
20:49
#17 D. Moore (C)
0
0
0
+1
2
0
0.0
15:01
#19 T. Connolly (C)
0
0
0
+2
0
1
0.1
21:16
#20 D. Paille (LW)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
0.1
13:57
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
0
2
3
0.2
14:38
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
0
2
0
0.0
14:03
#36 P. Kaleta (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
7:02
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
0
2
2
0.0
18:58
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
10:06
#76 A. Peters (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
2:09
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.4
26:57
#34 C. Butler (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1
10:52
#44 A. Sekera (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.0
22:27
#52 C. Rivet (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
16:43
Total
2
3
5
18
13
4.1
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#32 M. Tellqvist364.8890.258:31L

Team Stats

BUFOTT
13Shots on Goal36
4Power Play Chances9
0%PP%33%
67%PK%100%
0PPG3
18Penalty Minutes8
20Hits24
11Blocked Shots10
7Giveaways10
7Takeaways5

Full Game Log

1ST
04:02GOAL (BUF): Toni Lydman (2), assists: Henrik Tallinder, Jason Pominville
16:02GOAL (BUF): Jason Pominville (15), assists: Thomas Vanek
2ND
01:30GOAL (OTT): Dany Heatley (33), assists: Jason Spezza, Chris Neil
06:07GOAL (OTT): Brendan Bell (5), assists: Daniel Alfredsson, Filip Kuba
3RD
03:30GOAL (OTT): Daniel Alfredsson (22), assists: Jason Spezza, Filip Kuba
11:26GOAL (OTT): Brendan Bell (6), assists: Filip Kuba, Ryan Shannon
vs ATL (Mar 14, 2009)vs PHI (Mar 20, 2009) ›