@ NJD (Oct 28, 2009)@ NYI (Oct 31, 2009) ›

October 30, 2009

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

TOR 23 BUF

FINAL / OT

Head-to-Head vs TOR all-time
1ST2ND3RDOTT
TOR10102
BUF11013
Shots on goal TOR 35, BUF 28W R. MillerL J. Gustavsson
Summary

TOR had more shot attempts in all situations, but Buffalo won 3-2 in overtime.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .943
TOR J. Gustavsson .893
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 2 of 6
TOR 0 of 4
TURNING POINT
T. Connolly, power play goal (OT 1:04), Sabres win chance rises from 53% to 100%
WIN DNA
2 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
T. Connolly
3 (2G-1A)
POINTS
D. Roy
20:42
TOI (F)
C. Butler
23:51
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.943 (33/35)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFTOR

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Additional per-period stats
Each cell is BUF-TOR.
 1ST2ND3RDOTTotal
Faceoffs Won11-158-810-92-131-33
Hits7-46-76-20-019-13
Takeaways2-01-14-10-07-2
Giveaways3-52-46-50-011-14
PDO (5v5): BUF 1.059TOR 0.941. Shooting % plus save %. About 1.000 is neutral.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

OT 1:04
+17+90-9-17shot attemptsBUFTOR

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 64%.

OT 1:04
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFTOR
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. OT 01:04T. Connolly (2), power play 53% to 100%+47
  2. P3 19:22M. Grabovski (1) 100% to 61%-39
  3. P1 18:53I. White (1), power play 80% to 62%-18
  4. P1 15:11D. Stafford (1), power play 67% to 82%+15

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice.

Shot Map

Every shot attempt, to scale.

Replay
OT 1:04
Shot on goal (size = xG)GoalMissed shot×Blocked shot

Win DNA

2 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2009–10 regular season (82 games).

Wins (45)Losses (37, 10 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 81% when yes, 33% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 85% when yes, 40% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 76% when yes, 34% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 76% when yes, 33% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#19 T. Connolly (C)
2
1
3
0
0
4
2.6
18:04
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
2
2
+1
0
3
1.6
18:57
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
1
1
0
0
2
0.9
20:42
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
1
0
1
-1
2
4
0.9
15:27
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
1
1
0
0
2
0.9
18:04
#13 T. Kennedy (LW)
0
0
0
-1
2
0
0.1
13:02
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
6:06
#25 M. Grier (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.3
17:16
#36 P. Kaleta (RW)
0
0
0
0
2
0
0.2
6:13
#37 M. Ellis (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.3
9:53
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.3
16:27
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
4
0.3
16:28
#4 S. Montador (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
15:40
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.0
21:05
#34 C. Butler (D)
0
0
0
-2
0
1
0.2
23:51
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
10:47
#52 C. Rivet (D)
0
0
0
-2
2
1
0.0
21:48
#57 T. Myers (D)
0
0
0
+1
4
1
0.3
22:36
Total
3
5
8
12
28
8.8
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller352.9431.860:54W

Team Stats

TORBUF
35Shots on Goal28
0.0%Shooting % (5v5)5.9%
.941Save % (5v5)1.000
0.941PDO (5v5)1.059
33 (52%)Faceoffs Won31 (48%)
4Power Play Chances6
0%PP%33%
67%PK%100%
0PPG2
16Penalty Minutes12
13Hits19
16Blocked Shots18
14Giveaways11
2Takeaways7

Full Game Log

1ST
00:00Period start
15:11GOAL (BUF): Drew Stafford (1), assists: Thomas Vanek, Tim Connolly(PP)
18:53GOAL (TOR): Ian White (1), assists: Tomas Kaberle, Niklas Hagman(PP)
20:00Period end
2ND
00:00Period start
10:39GOAL (BUF): Tim Connolly (1), assists: Jason Pominville
20:00Period end
3RD
00:00Period start
19:22GOAL (TOR): Mikhail Grabovski (1), assists: Tomas Kaberle, John Mitchell
20:00Period end
OT
00:00Period start
01:04GOAL (BUF): Tim Connolly (2), assists: Derek Roy, Jason Pominville(PP)
01:04Period end
01:04Game end
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