@ PHI (Nov 27, 2009)@ TOR (Nov 30, 2009) ›

November 28, 2009

HSBC Arena | Buffalo

CAR 15 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs CAR all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
CAR1001
BUF0055
Shots on goal CAR 31, BUF 24W R. MillerL M. Leighton
Summary

CAR had more shot attempts in all situations, but Buffalo won 5-1.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .968
CAR M. Leighton .792
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 2 of 5
CAR 0 of 5
TURNING POINT
M. Grier goal (P3 1:59), Sabres win chance rises from 26% to 58%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
T. Myers
3 (3A)
POINTS
D. Stafford
21:37
TOI (F)
C. Butler
20:57
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.968 (30/31)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFCAR

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Additional per-period stats
Each cell is BUF-CAR.
 1ST2ND3RDTotal
Faceoffs Won13-104-1110-1027-31
Hits5-61-72-68-19
Takeaways1-20-01-12-3
Giveaways6-28-92-116-12
PDO (5v5): BUF 1.162CAR 0.838. Shooting % plus save %. About 1.000 is neutral.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 11 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+16+80-8-16shot attemptsBUFCAR

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 63%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFCAR
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 01:59M. Grier (1) 26% to 58%+32
  2. P3 04:33C. MacArthur (1), power play 58% to 86%+28
  3. P3 08:10D. Roy (1) 88% to 98%+10
  4. P3 02:55Tripping on Sergei Samsonov, 2 min 57% to 63%+6

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice.

Shot Map

Every shot attempt, to scale.

Replay
P3 19:56
Shot on goal (size = xG)GoalMissed shot×Blocked shot

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2009–10 regular season (82 games).

Wins (45)Losses (37, 10 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 81% when yes, 33% when no
Yes
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 85% when yes, 40% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 76% when yes, 34% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 76% when yes, 33% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#57 T. Myers (D)
0
3
3
0
0
1
2.2
20:50
#9 D. Roy (C)
1
1
2
0
2
3
2.0
17:08
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
1
1
2
+2
0
2
1.7
16:37
#55 J. Hecht (C)
1
1
2
0
0
3
1.7
18:00
#13 T. Kennedy (LW)
0
1
1
+2
0
2
0.8
12:08
#25 M. Grier (RW)
1
0
1
+2
0
3
1.0
17:08
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
1
1
+1
0
4
1.1
16:57
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
1
0
1
-1
2
2
0.8
19:08
#34 C. Butler (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.8
20:57
#44 A. Sekera (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.6
16:12
#19 T. Connolly (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.3
21:05
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
0
2
1
0.0
21:37
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
2
1
0.0
7:04
#37 M. Ellis (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
4:57
#4 S. Montador (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.1
18:24
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.1
19:22
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1
16:58
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
0
0
0
2
0
-0.1
6:17
Total
5
10
15
10
24
13.0
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller311.9682.359:59W

Team Stats

CARBUF
31Shots on Goal24
5.3%Shooting % (5v5)21.4%
.786Save % (5v5).947
0.838PDO (5v5)1.162
31 (53%)Faceoffs Won27 (47%)
5Power Play Chances5
0%PP%40%
60%PK%100%
0PPG2
10Penalty Minutes10
19Hits8
11Blocked Shots23
12Giveaways16
3Takeaways2

Full Game Log

1ST
00:00Period start
08:19GOAL (CAR): Matt Cullen (1), unassisted
20:00Period end
2ND
00:00Period start
20:00Period end
3RD
00:00Period start
01:59GOAL (BUF): Mike Grier (1), assists: Chris Butler, Thomas Vanek
04:33GOAL (BUF): Clarke MacArthur (1), assists: Derek Roy, Tyler Myers(PP)
08:10GOAL (BUF): Derek Roy (1), assists: Jason Pominville, Jochen Hecht
11:22GOAL (BUF): Jochen Hecht (1), assists: Tyler Myers, Andrej Sekera(PP)
14:37GOAL (BUF): Thomas Vanek (1), assists: Tyler Myers, Tim Kennedy
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