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March 10, 2009

Wachovia Center | Philadelphia

BUF 25 PHI

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs PHI all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF1012
PHI1045
Shots on goal BUF 29, PHI 33W M. BironL P. Lalime
Summary

PHI had more shots on goal in all situations and won 5-2.

IN NET
Buffalo M. Tellqvist .750
Buffalo P. Lalime .862
PHI M. Biron .931
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 3
PHI 2 of 6
TURNING POINT
J. Carter goal (P3 0:27), Sabres win chance drops from 47% to 19%
WIN DNA
2 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
J. Hecht
1 (1G)
POINTS
M. Ellis
5
SHOTS
D. Roy
18:33
TOI (F)
T. Lydman
21:38
TOI (D)
P. Lalime
.862 (25/29)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFPHI

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 23 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+9+50-5-9shot attemptsBUFPHI

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 44%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFPHI
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 00:27J. Carter (37) 47% to 19%-28
  2. P1 19:46S. Hartnell (23) 66% to 45%-21
  3. P1 01:52M. Afinogenov (3) 44% to 63%+19
  4. P3 04:59M. Richards (26) 14% to 4%-10

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice. This feed carries no on-ice strength codes, so power plays are read from the penalty calls alone.

Win DNA

2 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2008–09 regular season (82 games).

Wins (41)Losses (41, 9 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 78% when yes, 24% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 81% when yes, 39% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 66% when yes, 32% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 60% when yes, 37% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
1
1
+1
0
2
0.9
14:44
#55 J. Hecht (C)
1
0
1
+2
0
4
1.1
17:07
#61 M. Afinogenov (RW)
1
0
1
+1
0
3
1.0
13:35
#27 T. Numminen (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.9
16:08
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
0
0
-2
0
1
0.2
18:33
#17 D. Moore (C)
0
0
0
0
4
1
0.0
15:10
#19 T. Connolly (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.3
17:33
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
10:58
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
11:07
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
0
0
-2
0
2
0.2
12:37
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
0
0
-2
0
3
0.3
15:57
#36 P. Kaleta (RW)
0
0
0
0
7
1
0.1
9:43
#37 M. Ellis (LW)
0
0
0
0
2
5
0.2
10:31
#5 T. Lydman (D)
0
0
0
0
2
0
0.0
21:38
#6 J. Spacek (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.1
20:40
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
0
2
0
0.3
21:17
#44 A. Sekera (D)
0
0
0
-2
0
0
0.1
19:42
#52 C. Rivet (D)
0
0
0
-2
14
1
-0.1
19:10
Total
2
2
4
31
29
5.5
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#40 P. Lalime294.862-0.546:24L
#32 M. Tellqvist41.750-0.413:36

Team Stats

BUFPHI
29Shots on Goal33
3Power Play Chances6
0%PP%33%
67%PK%100%
0PPG2
31Penalty Minutes25
15Hits25
18Blocked Shots15
17Giveaways19
19Takeaways14

Full Game Log

1ST
01:52GOAL (BUF): Maxim Afinogenov (3), assists: Teppo Numminen
19:46GOAL (PHI): Scott Hartnell (23), assists: Claude Giroux, Mike Richards
3RD
00:27GOAL (PHI): Jeff Carter (37), assists: Joffrey Lupul, Scott Hartnell
04:59GOAL (PHI): Mike Richards (26), assists: Kimmo Timonen, Simon Gagne
06:24GOAL (PHI): Jeff Carter (38), assists: Joffrey Lupul, Scott Hartnell
15:00GOAL (PHI): Scott Hartnell (24), assists: Kimmo Timonen
18:38GOAL (BUF): Jochen Hecht (9), assists: Paul Gaustad
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