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October 24, 2009

St. Pete Times Forum | Tampa

BUF 32 TBL

FINAL / SO

Head-to-Head vs TBL all-time
1ST2ND3RDOTSOT
BUF011013
TBL101002
Shots on goal BUF 32, TBL 26W R. MillerL M. Smith
Summary

Buffalo had more shot attempts in all situations and won 3-2 in a shootout.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .923
TBL M. Smith .938
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 3
TBL 0 of 2
TURNING POINT
D. Stafford, power play goal (P3 19:43), Sabres win chance rises from 1% to 51%
WIN DNA
1 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
D. Stafford
1 (1G)
POINTS
D. Roy
21:07
TOI (F)
C. Butler
29:18
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.923 (24/26)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFTBL

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Additional per-period stats
Each cell is BUF-TBL.
 1ST2ND3RDOTTotal
Faceoffs Won8-1014-78-113-133-29
Hits9-96-42-70-017-20
Takeaways2-32-31-20-05-8
Giveaways3-31-33-20-07-8
PDO (5v5): BUF 0.931TBL 1.069. Shooting % plus save %. About 1.000 is neutral.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

OT 4:59
+18+90-9-18shot attemptsBUFTBL

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 52%.

OT 5:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFTBL
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P3 19:43D. Stafford (1), power play 1% to 51%+50
  2. P1 19:59V. Lecavalier (1) 52% to 30%-22
  3. P3 14:45Cross checking on Mattias Ohlund, 2 min 9% to 15%+6
  4. P2 10:29Hooking on Andrej Meszaros, 2 min 26% to 31%+5

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice.

Shot Map

Every shot attempt, to scale.

Replay
OT 4:59
Shot on goal (size = xG)GoalMissed shot×Blocked shot

Win DNA

1 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2009–10 regular season (82 games).

Wins (45)Losses (37, 10 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 81% when yes, 33% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 85% when yes, 40% when no
No
Scored first
Sabres win 76% when yes, 34% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 76% when yes, 33% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
1
1
0
0
2
1.2
21:07
#13 T. Kennedy (LW)
0
1
1
+1
0
1
0.8
12:32
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
1
0
1
0
0
5
1.1
17:44
#25 M. Grier (RW)
1
0
1
+2
0
2
0.9
15:17
#52 C. Rivet (D)
0
1
1
0
0
0
0.6
26:11
#19 T. Connolly (C)
0
0
0
-1
0
5
0.5
18:15
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
0
0
0
2
3
0.1
18:06
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
15:48
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.2
20:49
#36 P. Kaleta (RW)
0
0
0
0
2
1
0.1
8:52
#37 M. Ellis (LW)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
7:32
#41 C. MacArthur (LW)
0
0
0
-1
0
2
0.2
15:34
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
+1
0
1
0.1
16:49
#4 S. Montador (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.1
15:15
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.1
20:57
#34 C. Butler (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0.1
29:18
#38 N. Paetsch (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
5
0.4
13:09
#57 T. Myers (D)
0
0
0
+1
2
1
0.0
21:42
Total
2
3
5
6
32
6.4
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller262.9230.964:03W

Team Stats

BUFTBL
32Shots on Goal26
4.2%Shooting % (5v5)11.1%
.889Save % (5v5).958
0.931PDO (5v5)1.069
33 (53%)Faceoffs Won29 (47%)
3Power Play Chances2
0%PP%0%
100%PK%100%
0PPG0
6Penalty Minutes8
17Hits20
8Blocked Shots17
7Giveaways8
5Takeaways8

Full Game Log

1ST
00:00Period start
19:59GOAL (TBL): Vincent Lecavalier (1), assists: James Wright, Martin St. Louis
20:00Period end
2ND
00:00Period start
19:14GOAL (BUF): Mike Grier (1), assists: Tim Kennedy
20:00Period end
3RD
00:00Period start
04:26GOAL (TBL): Steven Stamkos (1), unassisted
19:43GOAL (BUF): Drew Stafford (1), assists: Derek Roy, Craig Rivet(PP)
20:00Period end
OT
00:00Period start
03:22Period end
SO
00:00GOAL (BUF): Tyler Myers, assists: Mike Smith(SO)
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