@ FLA (Mar 20, 2010)vs MTL (Mar 24, 2010) ›

March 21, 2010

RBC Center | Raleigh

BUF 53 CAR

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs CAR all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
BUF1405
CAR0123
Shots on goal BUF 20, CAR 30W R. MillerL J. Peters
Summary

CAR had more shot attempts in all situations, but Buffalo won 5-3.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .900
CAR M. Legace .833
CAR J. Peters .714
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 2 of 3
CAR 1 of 6
TURNING POINT
J. Hecht goal (P2 1:49), Sabres win chance rises from 74% to 89%
WIN DNA
3 of 4 winning traits
Game Leaders
J. Hecht
2 (2G)
POINTS
J. Hecht
4
SHOTS
J. Pominville
18:46
TOI (F)
T. Myers
25:41
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.900 (27/30)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFCAR

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Additional per-period stats
Each cell is BUF-CAR.
 1ST2ND3RDTotal
Faceoffs Won7-810-1310-1427-35
Hits9-125-157-821-35
Takeaways4-42-10-36-8
Giveaways1-30-22-03-5
PDO (5v5): BUF 1.070CAR 0.930. Shooting % plus save %. About 1.000 is neutral.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

Tied for only 14 minutes, too few for a score-tied view.

P3 20:00
+24+120-12-24shot attemptsBUFCAR

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 54%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFCAR
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P2 01:49J. Hecht (1) 74% to 89%+15
  2. P2 04:30J. Hecht (2), power play 91% to 96%+5
  3. P1 12:30Cross checking on Joni Pitkanen, 2 min 53% to 57%+4
  4. P1 09:00Slashing on Craig Rivet, 2 min 53% to 50%-3

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice.

Shot Map

Every shot attempt, to scale.

Replay
P3 19:39
Shot on goal (size = xG)GoalMissed shot×Blocked shot

Win DNA

3 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2009–10 regular season (82 games).

Wins (45)Losses (37, 10 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
Yes
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 81% when yes, 33% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
Sabres win 85% when yes, 40% when no
Yes
Scored first
Sabres win 76% when yes, 34% when no
Yes
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 76% when yes, 33% when no

Box Score

Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
Game Score
TOI
GS
#9 D. Roy (C)
0
2
2
0
0
1
1.5
16:07
#19 T. Connolly (C)
1
1
2
+2
0
2
1.5
16:34
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
2
2
+1
2
2
1.4
11:32
#55 J. Hecht (C)
2
0
2
+1
0
4
1.9
17:47
#13 T. Kennedy (LW)
1
0
1
0
0
2
0.9
11:41
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
1
1
-1
0
2
0.9
10:57
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
1
1
+1
0
2
0.9
18:46
#5 T. Lydman (D)
1
0
1
+2
0
3
1.2
21:51
#57 T. Myers (D)
0
1
1
+1
0
0
0.6
25:41
#22 A. Mair (C)
0
0
0
-1
14
0
-0.3
12:04
#25 M. Grier (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
2
0.2
16:57
#28 P. Gaustad (C)
0
0
0
0
2
0
-0.1
13:58
#36 P. Kaleta (RW)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.3
13:35
#37 M. Ellis (LW)
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0.1
11:37
#4 S. Montador (D)
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0.2
16:26
#10 H. Tallinder (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
24:37
#34 C. Butler (D)
0
0
0
-1
2
0
0.0
13:22
#52 C. Rivet (D)
0
0
0
-1
2
0
-0.1
16:03
Total
5
8
13
22
20
10.8
GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller303.9000.560:00W

Team Stats

BUFCAR
20Shots on Goal30
18.8%Shooting % (5v5)11.8%
.882Save % (5v5).813
1.070PDO (5v5)0.930
27 (44%)Faceoffs Won35 (56%)
3Power Play Chances6
67%PP%17%
83%PK%33%
2PPG1
24Penalty Minutes8
21Hits35
17Blocked Shots10
3Giveaways5
6Takeaways8

Full Game Log

1ST
00:00Period start
13:47GOAL (BUF): Tim Connolly (1), assists: Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy(PP)
20:00Period end
2ND
00:00Period start
01:49GOAL (BUF): Jochen Hecht (1), assists: Jason Pominville, Tim Connolly
04:30GOAL (BUF): Jochen Hecht (2), assists: Drew Stafford, Tyler Myers(PP)
08:45GOAL (BUF): Toni Lydman (1), unassisted
08:57GOAL (CAR): Sergei Samsonov (1), assists: Brett Carson, Rod Brind'Amour
11:11GOAL (BUF): Tim Kennedy (1), assists: Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy
20:00Period end
3RD
00:00Period start
02:07GOAL (CAR): Brandon Sutter (1), unassisted
17:00GOAL (CAR): Eric Staal (1), assists: Jamie McBain(PP)
20:00Period end
20:00Game end
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