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February 23, 2013

First Niagara Center | Buffalo

NYI 40 BUF

FINAL

Head-to-Head vs NYI all-time
1ST2ND3RDT
NYI0224
BUF0000
Shots on goal NYI 32, BUF 35W E. NabokovL R. Miller
Summary

Shot attempts were even in all situations; Buffalo lost 0-4.

IN NET
Buffalo R. Miller .875
NYI E. Nabokov 1.000
POWER PLAY
Buffalo 0 of 6
NYI 1 of 4
TURNING POINT
M. Streit goal (P2 17:51), Sabres win chance drops from 52% to 23%
WIN DNA
0 of 4 winning traits
SHIFTS
Buffalo sent skaters out on short rest 41 times (typical 22)
Game Leaders
POINTS
T. Ennis
0.6
GAME SCORE
T. Vanek
6
SHOTS
J. Pominville
21:53
TOI (F)
C. Ehrhoff
25:53
TOI (D)
R. Miller
.875 (28/32)
SAVE %

Stats by Period

All situations, by period.

BUFNYI

Shots on goal are counted from the play-by-play, which on a few games sits one shot off the box score line in the header and Team Stats.

Additional per-period stats
Each cell is BUF-NYI.
 1ST2ND3RDTotal
Faceoffs Won8-1111-1013-732-28
Hits9-911-46-526-18
Takeaways2-13-42-17-6
Giveaways2-12-15-09-2
PDO (5v5): BUF 0.889NYI 1.111. Shooting % plus save %. About 1.000 is neutral.

Game Flow

Running shot attempts for and against, all situations. Shading shows who led.

P3 20:00
+8+40-4-8shot attemptsBUFNYI

Dots are goals, navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Score-adjusted weights each attempt by how often teams take one in that score state, home or away, at that point of the game, league-wide (2016-17 to 2025-26): the share as if the game were tied at a neutral site. Score-tied counts only attempts while tied, and needs 15 tied minutes and 30 attempts.

Win Probability

Buffalo's chance of winning, from the score, the time left and the strength state.

Opened at 53%.

P3 20:00
100%75%50%25%0%Buffalo win chanceBUFNYI
BIGGEST SWINGS
  1. P2 17:51M. Streit (1) 52% to 23%-29
  2. P2 18:56M. Grabner (1) 23% to 7%-16
  3. P2 15:26Tripping on John Tavares, 2 min 52% to 57%+5
  4. P2 12:16Too many men on the ice on Unknown, 2 min 52% to 57%+5

Dots are goals, diamonds penalties, squares a goalie pull; navy for Buffalo.

How this is measured

Each team is expected to score at the league rate for the season, tilted for home ice and scaled for the strength state. The chance Buffalo ends regulation ahead follows from the score and the time left, with a tie going to 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout. The opening value comes from both teams' goals for and against to that date, regressed toward the league average early in a season, plus home ice.

Shot Map

Every shot attempt, to scale.

Replay
P3 19:57
Shot on goal (size = xG)GoalMissed shot×Blocked shot

Win DNA

0 of 4 winning traits showed up tonight. Win rates are over the full 2012–13 regular season (48 games).

Wins (21)Losses (27, 6 in overtime or a shootout)This game
3+ scorersD combined 3+ ptsScored firstDepth goal50%100%
No
3+ different scorers
Sabres win 63% when yes, 34% when no
No
Defensemen combined for 3+ points
too few games to split
No
Scored first
Sabres win 67% when yes, 21% when no
No
Depth forward scored
Sabres win 50% when yes, 38% when no

Shift Rhythm

Buffalo sent skaters back out on short rest 41 times, well above the typical 22 a game.

A. Sekera went back out on short rest 8 times, once after only 13 seconds on the bench. In a typical game, the busiest skater does it about 5 times.

BUFNYITypical game, 2012–13
Pinned time (5v5)1:000:251:04
Shot attempts against while pinned101
Short-rest shifts411722

When Buffalo was pinned

PeriodClockPinnedSkaters (unbroken play)Attempts againstGA
P21:29 to 1:360:0700
P22:36 to 2:490:13
S. Ott 1:13
00
P24:01 to 4:220:2110
P212:04 to 12:160:1200
P37:43 to 7:450:0200

When New York was pinned

PeriodClockPinnedSkaters (unbroken play)Attempts againstGA
P13:53 to 4:060:1300
P24:01 to 4:060:0500
P33:42 to 3:490:0700
How this is measured

Pinned. A team is pinned when 3 or more of its skaters on the ice are past a minute of unbroken play, at 5v5. A hemmed-in shift is an even-strength shift in which the unit was on for more than 1:00 without a whistle to change on, and stayed at even strength for most of it. A stoppage inside a shift starts the clock over, however it began: what counts is the run of play they could not get off the ice for. Only the time past the minute counts: the first minute of those shifts plays like any other stretch of the game, while past it the play tilts hard toward the end the pinned team is defending (in 2012–13, a pinned team took 32% of the shot attempts; pinned time was 2.4% of all 5v5 play). Pinned time is seconds on the clock, not each skater's seconds added up.

Short rest. An even-strength shift a skater started after less than 45 seconds on the bench, same period only (an intermission is a full rest).

Typical game. The middle value across Buffalo games in the 2012–13 regular season, counting both teams (96 team totals), so it stands in for a league-average game. A sentence at the top only appears when a number is among the highest fifth of those, or when a goal went in while a team was pinned.

Shots at an empty net are left out of every row. None of this says why a goal went in: a unit that cannot change is pinned and tiring at the same time, so these rows describe when the danger came, not what caused it.

Shift by shift

Shift length, in order, for one Buffalo skater this game.

29 shifts, averaging 0:49. 5 hemmed-in, 8 after a short rest, 0:19 pinned.

Replay
Shift 29
Hemmed-in shiftShort rest before itGoal forGoal againstPenalty takenPower playPenalty killPeriod average and middle half of shifts (even strength)
P1avg 0:43P2avg 0:56P3avg 0:430:000:301:001:302:00151015202529Shift Number

Period averages are even strength only. Typical in 2012–13: 0:46, 0:50 (the long change), 0:48.

Line Combinations

Lines and pairs at 5v5, and how they did together.

What do TOI, CF, xG% etc. mean?
GP
Games in which this exact line/pair shared the ice together at 5v5.
TOI
Time on ice together at 5v5, meaning the whole line/pair on the ice at once, not any one player's own total. Only the seconds that exact pair or trio was the unit count, which is why a pair's TOI and xG% here differ slightly from the WOWY table, where together counts every 5v5 second the two share, whoever else is on the ice.
xGF / xGA
Expected goals for/against while this combo was on the ice, from this site's own xG model.
xG%
Share of on-ice expected goals this combo earned: xGF / (xGF + xGA). The single best read on who controlled play.
GF / GA
Actual goals for/against while this combo was on the ice together.
CF / CA (Corsi For / Against, Shot Attempts)
"Corsi" is just the hockey-analytics name for total shot attempts: shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots combined, a volume proxy for who had the puck more. CF is this combo's own attempts, CA is the opponent's.
CF%
Share of on-ice shot attempts (Corsi) this combo earned: CF / (CF + CA).
CF% Rel
This combo's CF% minus the team's own CF% in the minutes this exact combo was NOT on the ice. Positive means the combo lifted the team's play; negative means it dragged it down.
xGF% Rel
This combo's xG% minus the team's own xG% in the minutes this exact combo was NOT on the ice. Positive means the combo lifted the team's expected-goals share; negative means it dragged it down.
FF / FA
Unblocked shot attempts (also called Fenwick): shots on goal plus misses, excluding blocks. One layer closer to real scoring chances than CF/CA.
SF / SA
Shots on goal for/against while this combo was on the ice together.
Minimum Ice Time
Drag the slider on each table down to see combos with less shared ice time. Their percentages get noisier the lower you go, since a combo that barely played together can swing to 100% or 0% off a single shot.
STRENGTH
Forward Lines
LineGPTOIGFGACFCACF%CF% RelFFFASFSA
Pominville–Vanek–Hodgson112:3001121840.0%-5.4%1115910
Stafford–Gerbe–Ennis18:590013668.4%27.0%8565
Hecht–Ott–Porter17:05005645.5%1.1%4623
Kaleta–Foligno–Grigorenko12:56001150.0%5.6%1111
Porter–Kaleta–Foligno12:21002250.0%5.7%2020
Pageof 1
Defense Pairs
LineGPTOIGFGACFCACF%CF% RelFFFASFSA
Ehrhoff–Sekera110:02019950.0%6.2%9968
Regehr–Myers18:410010758.8%15.9%7754
Ehrhoff–Weber14:44008753.3%9.7%5653
Regehr–Sekera14:34011811.1%-35.2%0604
Pageof 1

Three Stars

1E. NabokovNYI | G0.00 GAA, 1.000 SV%
2J. TavaresNYI | C1G 0A 1P
3M. GrabnerNYI | RW1G 0A 1P

Box Score

ON-ICE RATES
Player
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SOG
iGAx
On-Ice
Game Score
TOI
On-Ice TOIxGF%xGF% RelCF%CF% RelFF%GF%PDOxGSGS
#9 S. Ott (C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
9:5831.3%-15.9%28.6%1.000
-0.2
18:21
#12 K. Porter (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
12:2942.1%-2.7%46.7%1.000
0.0
13:21
#19 C. Hodgson (C)
0
0
0
-3
2
4
15:0939.5%-8.4%39.4%0.0%0.786
-0.7
20:26
#21 D. Stafford (RW)
0
0
0
-2
0
5
12:1658.6%+21.8%52.4%0.0%0.778
0.5
17:51
#25 M. Grigorenko (C)
0
0
0
0
0
1
6:0014.3%-32.5%16.7%1.000
-0.2
6:00
#26 T. Vanek (LW)
0
0
0
-2
2
6
14:4936.4%-12.7%37.9%0.0%0.833
-0.3
21:46
#29 J. Pominville (RW)
0
0
0
-1
0
1
13:4537.5%-10.6%40.7%0.0%0.909
-0.5
21:53
#36 P. Kaleta (RW)
0
0
0
0
2
0
7:5844.4%+0.3%57.1%1.000
0.0
8:58
#42 N. Gerbe (C)
0
0
0
0
2
1
11:5761.5%+24.9%57.9%1.000
0.2
16:12
#55 J. Hecht (C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
8:3631.3%-15.9%26.7%1.000
-0.3
9:43
#63 T. Ennis (RW)
0
0
0
0
0
3
10:1366.7%+29.7%64.3%1.000
0.6
18:11
#82 M. Foligno (LW)
0
0
0
-1
2
2
9:1141.7%-2.9%57.1%0.0%0.667
-0.2
9:14
#6 M. Weber (D)
0
0
0
-1
2
1
16:5042.4%-2.9%41.7%0.0%0.889
0.0
19:12
#10 C. Ehrhoff (D)
0
0
0
-1
0
5
18:1150.0%+10.4%48.5%0.0%0.917
0.5
25:53
#24 R. Regehr (D)
0
0
0
-2
0
1
16:5240.0%-7.1%33.3%0.0%0.846
-0.5
19:28
#44 A. Sekera (D)
0
0
0
-2
0
3
18:0441.2%-5.0%44.8%0.0%0.846
-0.3
23:43
#52 A. Sulzer (D)
0
0
0
0
0
0
3:190.0%-46.3%0.0%
-0.1
3:27
#57 T. Myers (D)
0
0
0
0
0
1
14:5853.6%+13.9%54.5%1.000
0.3
21:50
Total
0
0
0
12
35
-1.2

On-ice rates are 5-on-5. Rel compares to the team with that skater off the ice.

GoalieSAGAxGASV%GSAxGSTOIDec
#30 R. Miller324.875-0.260:00L

Team Stats

NYIBUF
32Shots on Goal35
11.1%Shooting % (5v5)0.0%
1.000Save % (5v5).889
1.111PDO (5v5)0.889
28 (47%)Faceoffs Won32 (53%)
4Power Play Chances6
25%PP%0%
100%PK%75%
1PPG0
20Penalty Minutes14
18Hits26
16Blocked Shots13
2Giveaways9
6Takeaways7

Full Game Log

1ST
00:00Period start
20:00Period end
2ND
00:00Period start
17:51GOAL (NYI): Mark Streit (1), assists: Matt Moulson, Marty Reasoner
18:56GOAL (NYI): Michael Grabner (1), unassisted
20:00Period end
3RD
00:00Period start
04:24GOAL (NYI): John Tavares (1), assists: Matt Moulson, Brad Boyes
19:02GOAL (NYI): Colin McDonald (1), assists: Casey Cizikas, Mark Streit(PP)
20:00Period end
20:00Game end
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